Das KAP-ital

They love a populist politician in Queensland.

My own experience observing Australian politics is long enough that I caught the greatest of them all, Sir Joh Bjelke-Petersen, right at the end of his thousand year reign of terror (actually 19 years, but I'm sure it felt like a thousand for a good number of people who lived there), somewhere between that moment of corrupting absolute power and the police powers of the anti corruption commission. Sir Joh distilled politics down to a very simple business; offer inane gibberish to the public while your acolytes pillage the state Treasury and an expanded police force gives a hardline interpretation of the word 'order.' He didn't really need policies, as his police and security agencies meant there was no opposition, so his connection with populism is looser than it might have been, largely down to his folksy manner and his deluded 'Joh for Canberra' campaign of 1987 (which effectively derailed John Howard's election chances that year, so it's impossible to hate the bloke). Said Joh, when his campaign for Prime Minister had petered out, 'I never wanted it anyway.'

More exciting than Joh, and nearly as resiliant, was his populist suiccessor, the exciting Queensland soap melodrama that was Pauline Hanson.

From this distance, where Hanson only shows up occasionally on telly, and usually in something like 'Dancing with the Stars,' it's hard to remember exactly what a big deal she once was. Elected to Federal Parliament in 1996 on the back of an anti-Labor swing of 19%, this being the election where Keating lead Labor over a cliff, Hanson immediately made a name for herself in her maiden parliamentary speech, where she denounced multiculturalism, immigration, tolerance, dogs, buses, vegetables, schools, immunisation, Medicare, television and most of the other things that modern Australia is founded on. This proved so popular, initially, that at the Queensland State election of 1998 she lead the 'One Nation' party she had formed around herself to 10 seats and the balance of power. But this triumph was short lived. Shortly after this, people suddenly remembered that they liked dogs and television and, most importantly, their foreign born neighbours and that the person telling them to hate all of those things was, actually, nothing more than a petty tyrant in a fright wig. Hanson soon lost her seat, then her party, and even spent some time in jail for electoral fraud, before retiring to a life as a grade D celebrity, where she was infinitely more suited.

Now Queensland has produced a new populist political leader for us to enjoy.

Although 'new' may not be the most accurate way of describing the gent in question; a silver haired veteran of 38 years in State and Federal politics by the name of Bob 'The Mad' Katter. Also known as the bloke in the hat.

Katter came into State politics, as a National Party member of Sir John's government, in 1974 and moved to Canberra in 1993, winning the far north Queensland seat of Kennedy (formerly held by his father). In 2001 he left the National Party behind, annoyed at the government's removal of sugar subisidies for his constituents and tired of Federal National leader Warren Truss' gormless face.

He subsequently won  his seat as an independant, and has now been re-elected as such three times (2004, 07 and 10). Despite the Nationals throwing gobs of money and effort at it to try and wrest the seat back, Katter won nearly 70% of the two party preferred vote in 2010 and now has one of the safest seats in the country. Sitting on such a buffer, it's no wonder the man's confidence is up.

Which brings us to Katter's latest venture: Katter's Australia Party (or KAP):






Apart from the video, the newest player on the Australian political landscape has quite a smart website, from which we can discern a few key points:

1) The man's name is in the title for a reason. This is very much KATTER'S Australia Party. On my visit to the site today, I counted five pictures of The Mad just on the home page; walking, yelling, scowling and, caution advised, even grinning. An ad to the right of these offered the chance to buy a book telling the  'passionate' history of Australia. The author of this was... Bob Katter. A separate section within the site itself is called 'Where's Bob?' and is dedicated to recording people's encounters with the great man; photos, anecdotes, hat sightings (no caution here, this is freakin' hilarious!).

2) Unlike Sir Joh, The Mad has got plenty of policies, on everything from food production in Queensland, to selling Queensland's public assets, to rebuilding Queensland's infrastructure. Hmmm... there's something about this that I can't quite put my finger on. And this is where populism really kicks in. KAP's policies are a mix of pre 60s Labor, Menzies era social conservatism and a straight out demand for pork barrel cash for the bush. It's very us against them, although the enemy shifts around a bit, and sometimes isn't defined at all.

3) Apart from policies, the site also has a separate section about the party's principals. Which I liked, as it seems to reflect the very nature of politics; Principals: What we'd like to do if we lived in a fantasy world where the usual rules of politics didn't apply; Policies: What we will try and do in this world where they do.

4) KAP is short of a few bob. They're not short of Bob, but they are short of money, at least based on the number of 'DONATE NOW' links that dot the website.

Of course, it's easy for me to sit here and make fun of a squeeky voiced old codger on a bit of a power trip. The Mad will always attract detraction,such is the nature of his political persona. But he is to be underestimated at his opponents peril.

No one really expected him to keep his seat as an independent against a well entrenched and well financed operation like The Nats, but he did, much to their annoyance. And his new political party, which has been derided by pundits considerably more serious than myself, has already had some small measure of success. In the Queensland state election of a few weeks ago they captured two seats (one to The Mad's son, Rob), a small number to be sure, but only five less than the Labor Party managed. If they keep their focus as tight as it is now - local candidates and issues - they could certainly do some damage in far north Queensland at the next Federal election. This forthcoming election, likely to feature two widely disliked leaders in Abbott and Gillard, throws open a number of opportunities for a small time populist on the make. Very much in the Queensland tradition.

Cyclone 'Terrorise'

Federal Member of Parliament Bob 'The Mad' Katter is someone who knows a bit about cyclones.

I mean, he's survived at least 30 of them by now, and maybe more than that. He's pretty much lost count, since they used to whistle through his part of far north Queensland every five minutes back in the seventies. And he was nearly killed by one when he was six, when 'Cyclone No Name' swept through Townsville - or somewhere - and upset the ferry he was riding back from Magnetic Island on. Not that this bothered Bob much. By age six he'd already survived 14 cyclones, 10 hurricanes, 87 flash floods and the election of the Bjelke-Peterson government, so nothing much phased him:

'I thought it was fun, but my mother was certain we were going to drown.'



So this is clearly a man we can rely on to give us some insight into the Level 5 Cyclone, Cylone 'Yasi,' that crossed Queensland's coast last night.

And Bob was happy to oblige, taking to ABC24 last night to provide some insights.

It was clear from the start that Bob was concerned. A lot of his mates, tough sort of blokes you'd imagine, were looking a bit 'glassy-eyed.' Everyone was worried, even people who had survived Cyclone Larry in 2006. Bob was worried for them too, but less concerned about himself. Having survived cyclones, hurricanes, monsoons, tornadoes, floods, fires, famine, plague, yo-yo's, low GI diets, happy pants, 'talk to the hand,' text speak and the Howard government's refusal to subsidise Queensland's sugar industry, he'd built himself a steel reinforced house and felt he could survive anything.

'We're not going anywhere,' he said.

But he was much less sanguine about what the media had been doing to his constituents. The glassy-eyed ones. Playing up to their fears. 'Terrorising' them, in his words, with this constant talk of a large storm bearing down on Queensland. He seemed to feel that the media were beating up the storm and the dangers it posed, to whip everyone into some kind of storm frenzy and so help their ratings (or something).

'The message that has gone through to people has been one of terror.'



Hmmm, looks pretty terrifying to me.

But Bob would have none of it. Didn't the people in the media understand that in Queensland people were built tough, and that they, and he, had survived earthquakes, tsunamis, the fall of the heavens, the explosion of the sun, the end of the... well, you get the idea. The earnest interviewer on ABC24 seemed puzzled by this argument. Did the member for Kennedy not want the media to highlight the plight of his constituents? And what about the people who had stayed in those areas and who might be relying on organisations like the ABC to keep them up to date with what was happening?

'You're missing my point,' said Katter, who then proceeded to pretty much go, 'Terrorise, terrorise, terrorise, terrorise, terrorise, terrorise, terrorise.'

Clearly he felt pretty strongly about it, whatever it was he was talking about.

It's Good to be the King!

Tony Abbott is a man of his word.

During negotiations with minor party and independent parliamentarians over the last two weeks on who would form a minority government, the Opposition leader pledged a 'kinder, gentler polity,' if they supported him as Prime Minister.

Then, in the aftermath of yesterdays decision by the final pair of uncommitted country independents - Rob Oakeshott and Tony Windsor - to back Julia Gillard instead, handing her the top job, Abbott promised to hold the new government 'ferociously' to account and to 'vigorously' scrutinise all Government policy and to 'smash the fuck out of any Government members who step out of line or look at me funny.'

Well, maybe not that last one, but you get the idea.

Abbott, more than a little disappointed he's not going to be PM, has cancelled all bets now that the election has finally limped to an exhaustive conclusion. You'll note that he didn't say he'd be nice if he didn't get to sit in the Prime Minister's office.

Which probably suits the man and his temperament. Nice was never his strong suit and holding his breath these last few months and not trying to yell and bash things has probably worn him out a bit. Now that the election is over and he doesn't have to try and convince any swinging voters in marginal seats to vote for him - at least for a little while - he can exhale and let the mongrel back out again.

And he's not alone. Members of the Liberal Party were flailing around today, desperately trying to get onto some sort of media conveyance - print, radio, television, online, whatever - so they could let fly at our new Government and it's independent backers.

Liberal Senator George 'The Hitman' Brandis: 'This government has as much legitimacy as the Pakistani cricket team.'

Nationals Senator Ron 'Begbie' Boswell: 'This is payback from Tony Windsor on the National Party.'

And Manager of Opposition Business Christopher 'The Hammer' Pyne: 'This government is like putting a mongoose and a cobra together.'

And while I'm not sure exactly what The Hammer is getting at with his comment, you can bet that he doesn't approve of the way things played out.

So what does this mean for our incoming Government? The one that will be mostly made up of shell shocked Labor MPs and backed, sort of, by an excitable Green (Adam Brandt), a taciturn former Army officer (Andrew Wilkie) and the aforementioned country independents? Well, it probably means that it's unlikely that it'll be a Government that'll 'let the sunshine in' (as Gillard said it would be yesterday, trying her best to sound optimistic at a difficult time). Robb Oakeshott's desire for 'consensus politics' is also about as likely as Bob 'The Mad' Katter agreeing to appear on a Mardi Gras parade float.

Far more likely is that this will be a government on the run, trying to appease it's disparate supporters in the House of Representatives - who span the whole political spectrum, from left to right - while trying to come up with something the the balance of power Greens in the Senate will also find acceptable. And all this while the Coalition will fight tooth and nail on all fronts to oppose every bit of legislation the new Government puts forward, knowing that they only need to shake one vote free to stop any policy in its tracks. And also knowing that if this were to happen a few times, the Government would grind to a halt and Coalition calls for a fresh election - which they are confident they would win - may well be overwhelming.

There is a precedent for this type of thing.

In 1975, the Whitlam Labor government held control of the Senate by a single vote. The death of one Labor Senator, and his subsequent replacement by a National Party representative (quite a story in itself), cost Labor control of the Senate and set off a chain reaction of events that lead to the Liberals Malcolm Fraser being installed as Prime Minister. Fresh elections were subsequently called to resolve the situation. Much has been written about this incident, the great 'Constitutional Crisis' of 1975, and much of what has been written about it focuses on the injustices heaped onto Gough Whitlam and Labor. What is usually less focused on is that when fresh, deadlock breaking elections were held, the Liberal Party gave Labor such a trouncing it took them nearly a decade to recover.

The problems for Labor then, are many.

They have to try and look confident and in control at a time when their confidence has been knocked by a poor election result and they have, literally, lost control of Parliament. They have to try and put forward bold, definitive policies on climate change, taxation and asylum seekers at a time when their new, independent, supporters do not agree what, if anything, needs to be done about any of these things. They have to try and prevent all their factional heavyweights and apparatchiks from tearing into each other and blaming one another for their appalling electoral outcome at a time when they show no interest in doing anything else. And, and perhaps most importantly, they have to find a way to get Robb Oakeshott into the ministry that they've promised him while keeping him away from any microphones or press, lest he launch into another endless speech like he did when he announced his vote yesterday.

Really, that last one is important. This bloke'll be assassinated and we'll be back to the polls again if he thinks he can drone away endlessly about the nobility of country children and the wonders of the democratic process whenever he feels like it (I wanted to jam corks in my ears and smash my radio after about five minutes).

Which is to say, he can do exactly that, drone on endlessly or whatever else take his fancy. All the independents can. Whatever may happen in the life of this government, for now Oakeshott et al are king makers, and as Mel Brooks will tell you:

Christmas Decorations

Like an excitable parent who doesn't take the Christmas decorations down until Australia Day, one of my neighbours just cannot seem to let the election go:



I mean, I know the final result is still unclear, but the campaigning part of the whole thing is over and done with, right? The signs and stuff can't help anymore, right? None of the candidates are still actually trying to get our vote... right?

Well right.

But only in the sense that our primary political leaders are no longer trying to get our vote. As in the humble punters that make up the bulk of the electorate in this country. Nope, we've had our go and the major parties are well and truly done with us. And since these same major parties went out of their way to ensure there were no real differences between them during the election campaign, and so no meaningful choice, we didn't end up choosing either of them outright.

Final power, then, now rests in the hands of a disparate group of independents and minor party parliamentarians, and the wooing of their vote is very much still in full swing. A second election campaign, of sorts.

And both major party's seem much more comfortable with this. This is politickin' as both Labor and Liberal prefer it, in private suites of offices away from the prying eyes of the public and the media. Where deals can be cut and votes bartered over coffee and sandwiches and where the talk is pragmatic and no one has to pretend to be in favour of reducing public debt while simultaneously announcing $42 billion worth of spending, as the Liberal Party did, or to pretend to be strongly in favour of reducing carbon emissions while simultaneously announcing a ludicrously complicated citizens assembly that would have made it impossible to reduce anything except the application of common sense, as Labor had done.

Those kind of nonsensical, doublethink ideas have gone out the window now we're into 'Election Campaign 2: Meet The Independents.' Both Gillard and Abbott are doing their best to stick to facts and reality and keep the bullshit to a minimum at the moment. And both are looking pained doing it, like people who learned how to play the piano when they were kids but haven't played for years and are now trying to recall a phrase or two. But this - hard facts and no hyperbole - is what the independents want and so this is what our leaders are trying to give them, at least in public.

And so this current dance between Labor, Liberal and the Independents is simultaneously like an election campaign as we know them... and yet not like one.

For example, Julia Gillard gave a speech to the 'National Press Club' last week, as she did during the real election campaign, in which she outlined her vision for Australia... a vision which suddenly included things like reform of Parliament and more money for neglected regions of Australia and more money for mental health treatment and disability insurance. Things, policies, with a bit of vision about them and so entirely missing from her actual election campaign, the one that was supposedly run for our benefit. And Tony Abbott this week submitted all of his election policies to Treasury for costing, exactly as the 'Charter of Budgetary Honesty' requires him to do during an election campaign... except he didn't do this during the actual election campaign, the one supposedly run for our benefit, claiming at the time that Treasury was full of liars and communists and should be the subject of a Federal Police investigation.

That Federal Police investigation is now forgotten about, and anyone that asks Mr Abbott about it in public will get a sickly grin before he changes the subject (in private they'd probably get a punch in the face, at least). Likewise anyone that asks Ms Gillard about her sudden conversion to Parliamentary reform, a broken Labor election promise from 2007, will get a short reply about the wonders of democracy and her personal commitment to reform. And then both of them would probably dash, sprint, to the nearest phone to call Rob Oakeshott or Bob Katter and ask them if they'd seen the press conference and what did they think and how was everything going anyway? Bigger office? Maybe you could use a bigger office. We could arrange a bigger office if you feel you need one. Now might be the time. Anything you like, you've got my number.

There can be no doubt that these are unusual times in Australian politics (Don Bradman and Adolf Hitler were both still captaining their respective countries last time we had a hung parliament) and this is causing some unusual side effects. Quite apart from the major party leaders behaving like rational adults with the best interests of the public at heart, some good ideas are being batted around about what to do with this country of ours. Some bad ideas are being batted around too, but the key word in both of those sentences is 'ideas' (and the 'batted around' part is important too):

Bob Katter wants a return to protectionism and the tariff wall, Rob Oakeshott a national unity government, Tony Windsor super fast broadband, Adam Bandt and the Greens a conscience vote on gay marriage, Tony Crook a sackfull of money for his mob in the bush and Andrew Wilkie a new hospital for Hobart (I guess not everyone's caught up in the big picturedness of the moment).

Now you could fairly quickly make a list of pros and cons for all of those proposals and stir up a pretty lively debate about any of them. And if you did that, you'd have the undying gratitude of anyone in Australia with an interest in politics who's just suffered through 5 weeks of 'Moving Forward' and 'Stop the Boats!' (A debate! With ideas and and differing points of view and everything!).

The other thing you can fairly quickly deduce from looking at that grab bag of wish list items is that it's no surprise we don't have a government yet. The fate deciding independents have little in common other than the phrase 'Independant Member for' in front of their parliamentary title. Little wonder then, that Tony and Julia look not only like people who have forgotten how to play the piano, but like medieval princes who have forgotten how to play the piano and who are also watching their castle being sacked by Visigoths. Business as usual has been suspended and change is in the air. Which has got to be good for the rest of us.

The Labor Party, which has already signed agreements with the Greens and Andrew Wilkie for limited support, appear best placed at this time to stagger over the line. The Coalition's mathematical problems with how they've funded their policies, exposed at long last by Treasury scrutiny, has undoubtedly hurt them. Treasury reporting a short fall of $7 - 11 billion dollars in the funding of a candidate that had sloganised constantly about 'ending debt' and 'stopping the waste' in Government spending could only ever be bad. Although Abbott did his best to heroically wave these sums aside as unimportant, and nothing more than 'a difference of opinion.'

Oakeshott, Katter and Windsor have indicated they should make up their mind this week, and maybe as early as tomorrow (Tuesday). The established thinking is that they will find enough common ground with each other and one of the major parties to install a minority government of some sort and end this current limbo period.

If they cannot, and it's probably unlikely but not impossible, we could all be back to the polls to have another go. Perhaps my neighbour, the one with the election signs still in the front yard, knows something the rest of us don't.

Limbo

For the first time since 1940, Australians woke the day after polling day to find that they had no government.

Which was probably a relief to lots of them. A goodly number wouldn't vote unless they were forced to by our constitution, and an even larger number try and have as little to do with politics and politicians as possible. Three quarters of a million of the electorate voted informally, and about the same number lodged a 'donkey vote,' numbering the boxes in sequential order from the top of the page to the bottom, without and consideration of who they were actually voting for. So a day after polling day newspaper headline that read:



Would disappoint surprisingly few.

But, of course, this is not the case. We still have a government and it's the same government that we had before Saturday's inconclusive poll.

As neither major party was able to win 76 seats in the House of Representatives, to garner a majority in their own right, Australian politics has entered a kind of limbo state. The Labor Party will remain in office, with Julia Gillard as Prime Minister, at least for the next week or so while things sort themselves out. And by 'sort themselves out' I mean while the two major parties offer the tie breaking Parliamentary independents their own ministries, choice of parliamentary jobs, dump trucks full of cash for their electorates, flat screen TV's, iPhone 4's and anything else that might tickle their fancy in order to get their vote.

A minority government, which is what the eventual winner of this combined lottery/raffle will be, is a tough gig, but in comparison to not getting a gig at all, it's the only gig worth gigging.

In the mean time, while this barter between Labor, Liberal and the Independents continues, the two leaders both have to try and keep their party's well behaved and united. Which will be no mean feat and will require different skills from both Gillard and Abbott.

The Labor Party has emerged from the election blinking and disorientated, like someone who's just been in a plane crash and is amazed to find that they've somehow survived... And who then grabs a microphone off one of the TV news crews reporting the crash and starts slagging off the entire country on National TV. Really, the National ALP leadership doesn't seem to know whether to be happy, sad, puzzled, disappointed, angry, patient or philosophical. It's been a dizzying two months for them, in which they've dumped a first term Prime Minister, installed the country's first female PM in his stead, soared in the polls, crashed in the polls and then fought a thoroughly inept election campaign that ended in a deadlock. You have to pity Julia Gillard having to try and present this lot as a united team, 'ready to govern.'

The Liberal Party, on the other hand, have come out of the election like someone who's just seen their numbers come up on Powerball... and then realised that they forgot to put their ticket in. Somehow, they've managed to simultaneously win and lose the election, which is undoubtedly bothering them all very badly. They comfortably beat the Labor Party on primary vote figures - 44% to 38% - and won a host of seats and really, if you'd told them that that would be the outcome 12 months ago they would have laughed in your face and then probably installed you as leader. Nevertheless, despite these successes, their relentlessly negative, policy free election campaign was not enough to win the count outright. The biggest challenge for them then, is going to be trying not to sound like they did win the campaign outright and that they deserve to be installed in government without any debate. A tough ask for someone like Tony Abbott, who has 'Born to Rule' tattooed on his shoulder.

And so, for different reasons and from different starting points, both major parties find themselves in a similar position, one that neither one would want to be in. They're both of them stuck trying to woo a handful of independents from the cross-benches that they've both aggressively ignored these past ten years or so. I imagine both leaders are practicing their pitch right now:

'You know how I've never returned your phone calls or agreed to any meetings or allowed you to introduce any legislation into Parliament... well, let me just say, it was all a big misunderstanding! Are you comfortable? Would you like some water? You can have it with a twist of lime if you like. Very refreshing! Well let me know. We can always get you a lime.'

The independents themselves are a mixed bunch. Three of them - Bob Katter, Rob Oakeshott and Tony Windsor - represent former safe National seats (Katter and Windsor are former members of the National Party) and so are considered more likely to side with the coalition. Although, The Man in the Hat, Bob 'The Mad' Katter:



Had this to say about the Howard Goverment:

If they were good for the bush, then I'm a Martian astronaut.'

Which paints an interesting mental picture, as well as indicating no particular love for the conservative side of politics. The other two independents are newly elected Greens member for Melbourne Adam Bandt and former Greens Candidate and army intelligence whistle blower Andrew Wilkie, who are both on or thought to be on the left side of politics.

A diverse group, all of them playing their cards fairly close to their chest, as smart people on the make are wont to do.

And so the limbo period looks set to continue for some time longer. There'll be a lot of meetings and talks and discussions and canvassing of opinion, and probably no definite results for at least a week, and maybe three or four. There will be much debate and speculation and almost nothing will be certain until the very end.

One thing we can be sure of, though, is that the two major party leaders would much rather be watching John Sayles' 'Limbo':



Then living through their current limbo experience.